Macroeconomic Trends in 2023

Russian economy

GDR growth in the Russian Federation in 2023 was 3.6%Russian Statistics Agency. Socio‑Economic Situation in Russia, 2023..

The indicator exceeded the 3.5% growth rate projected by the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Economic Development (MED). According to the Russian Statistics Agency, GDR growth in 2023 was largely contributed by an increase in gross value added indices in the hotel and catering services, information and communications, financial, insurance and administrative activities, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing and construction.

According to the results of the macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia, Russia’s GDR in 2024 may grow by 1.6%Macroeconomic Survey of the Bank of Russia.. The growth rate of gross fixed capital formation in 2024–2026 should remain at an average of 2.3%, which will drive an increase in the share of gross fixed capital formation in GDRRussia Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Forecasts of Socio‑Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2024 and the Planning Period of 2025 and 2026..

In 2023, the Bank of Russia’s policy was aimed at bringing inflation back to target, and in 2023 its level was 7.42% (against 11.94% a year earlier), which is almost in line with the Bank of Russia’s earlier projection (6–7%) and coincides with the MED estimate (7.5%). The acceleration of price growth rates affected a wide range of goods and services. Accordingly, the indicators of the sustainable component of monthly price growth also continued to grow under the influence of an active increase in consumer demand. The current rate of price growth was also still affected by the weakening of the Russian Rouble.

According to forecasts, given the monetary policy in place, annual inflation should return to 4% in 2024 and will remain at 4% thereafter. The tightening of monetary policy undertaken by the Bank of Russia should contain the excessive expansion of domestic demand and limit its pro‑inflationary effectsBank of Russia, Consumer Price Movements, September 2023..